Countdown Iran » nuclear weapons

Iran Runs Military Nuclear Office, Intel Report Alleges

C.I. — Wed, 27 Jan 2010 18:29:25 +0000

JAN. 27 – “An intelligence document being studied by diplomats in Israel and Western powers alleges that a secret Iranian office is charged with overseeing military elements of the nation’s nuclear program, Der Spiegel reported yesterday,” according to Global Security Newswire.

Israeli Expert Cites West’s ‘Inept’ Iran Nuclear Policy

C.I. — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 13:49:45 +0000

JAN. 5 – Prof. Efraim Inbar, Director of Bar Ilan University’s Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies in Israel, has characterized the West’s handling of Iran and its suspected weapons program as “inept.”

Required Reading: ‘Iran Expands its Target List’ in WSJ

C.I. — Sun, 03 Jan 2010 21:54:17 +0000

JAN. 3 – “The nagging question of the nuclear age has been what if a madman gets hold of an atomic bomb?” writes USMC (Ret.) Timothy J. Geraghty, in an opinion piece in today’s Wall Street Journal. “That question is about to be answered as Iran’s defiance puts it on a collision course with the West.”

Geraghty writes: “On Nov. 4, 2009, Israeli commandos intercepted a ship 100 miles off the Israeli coast carrying hundreds of tons of weapons from Iran bound for Hizbullah in Lebanon. Since the 2006 war, Iran has rearmed Hizbullah with 40,000 rockets that will likely rain on Israeli cities – and even European cities and U.S. military bases in the Middle East – if Iran is attacked.

“Our 200,000 troops in 33 bases are vulnerable. Iran is capable of disrupting Persian Gulf shipping lanes, which could cause the price of oil to surge, and could also create mayhem in oil markets by attacking Saudi oil refineries. Moreover, Iran possesses Soviet-made SS-N-22 “Sunburn” supersonic anti-ship missiles that it could use to contest a naval blockade,” according to Geraghty, who was the U.S. Marine commander in Beirut in 1983.

Israeli Press Features NY Times Story

C.I. — Sun, 03 Jan 2010 04:33:10 +0000

JAN. 3 – The Israeli print and broadcast media are giving prominence, this morning, to the New York Times report that Obama Administration officials feel Iran’s nuclear program has been “seriously derailed.”

NY Times: Iranian Nuclear Program ‘Seriously Derailed,’ Leaders ‘Vulnerable’

C.I. — Sat, 02 Jan 2010 09:55:49 +0000

JAN. 2 – The New York Times is reporting tonight that according to the Obama administration, domestic unrest in Iran and signs of unexpected trouble in its nuclear program are making Iran’s leaders, particularly vulnerable to strong and immediate new sanctions.”

The Times also reports that according to Obama administration officials, Iran’s bomb-development effort was “seriously derailed” by the exposure three months ago of the country’s secret enrichment plant under construction near the holy city of Qum.

For New Year, Greater and Lesser Expectations

C.I. — Thu, 31 Dec 2009 19:30:46 +0000

DEC. 31 – With the expiration, tonight, of Washington’s ultimatum to Iran to agree to an imposed uranium enrichment deal or else face “crippling sanctions,” a number of Israeli media outlets are already noting the Obama administration’s planned change in tone.

Israel’s Channel 10 correspondent in Washington, Gil Tamari, reports that Washington instead plans to impose “targeted sanctions,” so as not to undermine the efforts of the popular uprising in Iran now gaining momentum.

Ben Caspit of Israel’s daily, Maariv, notes in a New Year’s eve column that the world’s intelligence community is eagerly awaiting a new U.S. National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran.

The 2007 report concluded that Iran froze its active efforts to manufacture nuclear weapons in 2003. It also maintained that Iran would not have such a capability until at least 2012.

“The report caused a clear sense of shock among many Western intelligence agencies, including [Israel's] Mossad,” Caspit writes. He cites a prevailing view among Western intelligence officials that the NIE findings were altered “for political reasons.”

Caspit maintains that recent British revelations pointing to Iran’s efforts to test a ”neutron initiator” in 2007–the same year the U.S. released its findings, place the NIE report “in a ridiculous light.”

Caspit says the only remaining question is what method Iran will employ as it gets closer to arming a nuclear weapon. “Will Tehran stop when it’s within each and wait for the right moment, or will it charge ahead until it reaches its goal?”